Early is wrong

"Think Like a Fundamentalist; Trade Like a Simple Technician" - Dennis Gartman

Timing doesn't just affect how much money you make in a trade, it often determines whether you'll be able to stay in the trade.

I don't usually do fundamental trades but lately I can't stop thinking about treasuries. With the 13-week trading negative and the 30-year at 3.06 I fee like this has got to reverse at some point.

TBT is the UltraShort Lehman 20+ Treasury ETF. TLT is just the regular.




One things that stands out to me in TBT is the huge volume lately. It was introduced in May and didn't do much volume up until recently. Since it is a relatively new ETF it doesn't seem like this volume is from people who bought it over the summer and are dumping it now. It's also probably not volume from shorting since it's hard to borrow and it would be much easier to just buy TLT. TLT isn't doing huge volume lately though. Because of this I'm thinking that the volume in TBT is people getting long and betting against Treasuries.

It looks like it could use a little more time to bottom. I'll be looking to get long sometime next week and stop out below 42.

Shorting Treasuries here is still risking and I'm not going to hold TBT down to 20 if I'm earlier/wrong. Capital preservation is key and I can always reenter later.