I was very negative about GMCR but they beat earning and were up 40%. Personally I think it's more a function of a short squeeze, not GMCR being worth that much. But only price pays. Disappointing but not a big loss since I had a reasonable position size and had puts.
I've come to an important realization about trading. Technical analysis isn't about predicting future price action. I can't know what price is going to do and I don't have any control over it. The only thing I control is my level of risk. Technical analysis is about finding opportunities in the market where reward outweighs risk.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Par
I was looking at my trading record and I have been shorting USD/JPY a lot recently. It was an easy trade, wait for it to get up into resistance, start rolling over, and get a quick drop.
Almost out of habit I went short last night around 98.60.
Then I zoomed out on the chart and studied the price action of the past month really closely.
After that I realized very quickly that I was on the wrong side of the trade. I reversed the trade and doubled it right before it took off. I took half off before the run to 100.
Autozone also had a really big drop today on high volume.
Almost out of habit I went short last night around 98.60.
Then I zoomed out on the chart and studied the price action of the past month really closely.
After that I realized very quickly that I was on the wrong side of the trade. I reversed the trade and doubled it right before it took off. I took half off before the run to 100.
Autozone also had a really big drop today on high volume.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Direxion is now trying to create monthly leverage for their ETFS.
That's heading in the right direction but I'm still skeptical of leveraged ETFs for anything but trading.
Currency trading is going well. Mostly I'm trading USD/JPY and I'm getting a good feel for that.
It's become very systematic for me. Look at charts, calculate position size and risk, make trade.
A big reason people lose when the start trading is that it's new to them. It's exciting and easy to get emotional about. You either stop getting emotional about trading or else you'll most likely fail. Most people don't last long enough to get emotions under control.
But I also see people take the psychology way too far. I heard one thing last year about how being told what we can and can't do as a child affects our ability in the markets because we're overwhelmed by choices...something like that.
That's heading in the right direction but I'm still skeptical of leveraged ETFs for anything but trading.
Currency trading is going well. Mostly I'm trading USD/JPY and I'm getting a good feel for that.
It's become very systematic for me. Look at charts, calculate position size and risk, make trade.
A big reason people lose when the start trading is that it's new to them. It's exciting and easy to get emotional about. You either stop getting emotional about trading or else you'll most likely fail. Most people don't last long enough to get emotions under control.
But I also see people take the psychology way too far. I heard one thing last year about how being told what we can and can't do as a child affects our ability in the markets because we're overwhelmed by choices...something like that.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Advantages of Currency
Lately I've been drawn to actively trading currency and doing longer term trading in stocks. Here's what I see as being the major advantages of trading currency.
- Virtually no commissions - The spreads on major currency pairs during market hours is incredibly small. Thinkorswim usually has a 2 pip spread on USD/JPY and Oanda's varies but is usually between 1-2. This means for a mini-lot ($10,000) the cost of the trade is between $1-$2 round trip.
- Liquidity - OTC currency markets do enormous volume. This liquidity means tight spreads. With the exception of products like SPY, most options markets have pretty wide spreads. It's like paying an extra commission.
- Commissions based on volume - This is a sub-point of #1, but the commissions paid on a trade depend on the volume. Per share pricing is available with many brokerages, however most retail places still do a flat fee.
- 24/5 trading - In the US currency markets open on Sunday night and close Friday afternoon. This provides more opportunities and is also great for people who aren't full time traders, like college students. This also means that there is no overnight risk. Eliminating overnight risk means more exact control over the amount of risk being taken because there aren't any surprise gaps in price.
- Less regulation - The pattern day trader rules are a huge burden on many active retail traders. Even non-day traders have to worry about getting stopped out multiple positions the same day they put them on.
- Position sizing - Brokers like Oanda allow trades of any size. This makes it very easy to set a stop-loss, determine the percentage of capital to be risked, and then size the position accordingly.
- Scalability - Because the only commission paid is the spread, and positions can be sized according to risk, it makes it very easy for a trader to grow an account. By thinking of risk/reward as a percentage of capital, there is no difference between trading $100 or $1,000,000. This means a trader can develop a trading method and gain experience with a small amount of initial capital and those methods will continue to work as the account grows. This is in contrast to stock trading where a small amount of initial capital is a makes trading more difficult.
Friday, March 20, 2009
More GMCR thoughts
I played around with a Keurig mini in Target today. It was ok, but it felt sort of cheap and it was all plastic. The basic model costs $80 and was on a shelf next to a normal drip-machine that cost $8. 
If the main reason people by this machine is convenience, why not buy this for $100?
I'm a huge coffee drinker and I understand how a Keurig could be convenient. But buying the simple entry-level Keurig for $80, being locked into a proprietary system, having no control over the coffee, and not being able to brew more than 1 cup at a time are serious drawbacks. It's a niche market.
GMCR made new highs on Thursday. 44.75 was the old high and had been resistance. Now it's acting as support. The stock had a nice run but gave up the gains the next day.
Here's the google trends search index data for "keurig". The "green mountain coffee" data looks similar, but less volatile. I think it's important to track "keurig" since that's their self-proclaimed growth driver.
Based off this there is an increase in searches for keurig. But pay attention to where the huge spikes are. Right around the holidays. I was reading an analyst a few months back who was saying the sale of the coffee pods weren't keeping pace with the machines. This is why. People get the machines as a gift and don't really use them. This bad for GMCR since they are making the real money selling the coffee pods.
If the main reason people by this machine is convenience, why not buy this for $100?
I'm a huge coffee drinker and I understand how a Keurig could be convenient. But buying the simple entry-level Keurig for $80, being locked into a proprietary system, having no control over the coffee, and not being able to brew more than 1 cup at a time are serious drawbacks. It's a niche market.
GMCR made new highs on Thursday. 44.75 was the old high and had been resistance. Now it's acting as support. The stock had a nice run but gave up the gains the next day.
Here's the google trends search index data for "keurig". The "green mountain coffee" data looks similar, but less volatile. I think it's important to track "keurig" since that's their self-proclaimed growth driver.
Based off this there is an increase in searches for keurig. But pay attention to where the huge spikes are. Right around the holidays. I was reading an analyst a few months back who was saying the sale of the coffee pods weren't keeping pace with the machines. This is why. People get the machines as a gift and don't really use them. This bad for GMCR since they are making the real money selling the coffee pods.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
GMCR update
Pretty crazy day today. Let's see how the dust settles.
I found something interesting today. A google search for "nasdaq short float data" brings up the specific page for GMCR.
http://www.google.com/search?q=nasdaq+short+float+data
So there's a lot of interest in GMCR's short float info, presumably by people looking to get long and profit from a short squeeze.
It's very close to breaking out to all-time highs. If this doesn't happen there could be a lot of people dumping the stock. People who were expecting a breakout or people who were expecting a short squeeze.
The other possibility is that it does break out. This could trigger a huge short squeeze. Although this is a possibility, it hasn't happened in the past. So there could be a boring breakout that causes a lot of short squeeze longs to dump.
I'll still got my puts and can't wait to see how this plays out
I found something interesting today. A google search for "nasdaq short float data" brings up the specific page for GMCR.
http://www.google.com/search?q=nasdaq+short+float+data
So there's a lot of interest in GMCR's short float info, presumably by people looking to get long and profit from a short squeeze.
It's very close to breaking out to all-time highs. If this doesn't happen there could be a lot of people dumping the stock. People who were expecting a breakout or people who were expecting a short squeeze.
The other possibility is that it does break out. This could trigger a huge short squeeze. Although this is a possibility, it hasn't happened in the past. So there could be a boring breakout that causes a lot of short squeeze longs to dump.
I'll still got my puts and can't wait to see how this plays out
ETFs by volume
Thinkorswim has an watchlist that contains about 1500 ETFs. I graphed them by volume.
The first chart is the top 20 ETFs by volume today. Some familiar favorites on the list. For some reason the 3x funds aren't included although FAS and FAZ do a lot of volume.
Even in the top 20 there is a fat tail.
Gets even worse when all 1500 are included.
Liquidity brings in liquidity.
The first chart is the top 20 ETFs by volume today. Some familiar favorites on the list. For some reason the 3x funds aren't included although FAS and FAZ do a lot of volume.
Even in the top 20 there is a fat tail.
Gets even worse when all 1500 are included.
Liquidity brings in liquidity.
Good as gold
Last night when gold was at 910 I said I thought it would break it's 50DMA and trendline.
That was fast
That was fast
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
TLT at support
I bought TBT on 12/18 and sold it on 2/4. I'm not entirely sure where we're going, but TLT looks like it is at support.
AEM
I'm short AEM through August 09 puts. Right now it has a trifecta of moving average potential resistance. Plus it looks like a nice rounded top.
The trade is going well so far because AEM is a gold miner and gold has been doing badly. When the market was down, gold was down, when the market is up, gold is down.
However, in comparison to gold, AEM has been underperforming. After having a brief breakout to 1000 and quickly falling back to 900, I'm bearish on gold.
The trade is going well so far because AEM is a gold miner and gold has been doing badly. When the market was down, gold was down, when the market is up, gold is down.
However, in comparison to gold, AEM has been underperforming. After having a brief breakout to 1000 and quickly falling back to 900, I'm bearish on gold.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
GMCR
There seems to be a lot of interest in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters because it has a 50% short float, about 10 million shares.
Although this is high, the short interest has been building for a long time. It had 7 million shares short when it broke out to all-time highs. There wasn't a dramatic short squeeze. Volume as it broke out shortly was higher than normal, but not extraordinary.
The stock added 10 points and still ended with the same number of shares short. I don't see any reason why there will be a short squeeze here unless there is a catalyst. But even above 44~45, I don't necessarily see that either. It made all-time highs earlier and the shorts stayed.
Here's the 12 months of short float data
GMCR has been hitting resistance every time around 44. But while this is happening it's putting in lower lows. Looks like a big head and shoulder pattern.
A weekly chart show the accumulation of the stock over a few years. At the beginning of 2006 it takes off and a ton of volume comes in. Since mid-2006 the stock has been doing a high-volume churn and not getting anywhere. During that time the MACD and RSI show negative divergence.
Lastly, let's talk fundamentals. The growth area of the company is one-touch coffee makers. The sales of machines have been great. But their business model is based on selling the machines for cheap and making it up on sales of the proprietary coffee pods.
I'm going to make a few assumptions. The first is that most people who buy the Krueig machines from GMCR probably already drink coffee and have a coffee machine. They probably bought a one-touch for convience. What is more discretionary than proprietary one-touch gourmet coffee pods?
When money is tight it's very easy to go to Wal-Mart, buy a really cheap drip coffee maker and some foldgers.
Motley Fool, although not my favorite site, has a write-up.
I'm sure the insiders think it's fairly valued.
In the last 6 monts
Net Shares Purchased (686,553)
out of the 5.07m held by insiders.
11.9% of the company in the past 6 months.
To get a better idea, check out the bottom of their FINVIZ page. I think the color adds a lot.
Net Institutional Purchases - Prior Qtr to Latest Qtr (3,809,140)
% Change in Institutional Shares Held (18.8%)
Lastly, "Green" mountain coffee is building the largest solar power array in Vermont. And they are giving $800,000 in grants to fight climate change.
Do they not realize that their business revolves around selling disposable, plastic, one-time coffee pods because their customer is so lazy that they can't scoop coffee into a filter?
Disclosure: Short through puts
Although this is high, the short interest has been building for a long time. It had 7 million shares short when it broke out to all-time highs. There wasn't a dramatic short squeeze. Volume as it broke out shortly was higher than normal, but not extraordinary.
The stock added 10 points and still ended with the same number of shares short. I don't see any reason why there will be a short squeeze here unless there is a catalyst. But even above 44~45, I don't necessarily see that either. It made all-time highs earlier and the shorts stayed.
Here's the 12 months of short float data
GMCR has been hitting resistance every time around 44. But while this is happening it's putting in lower lows. Looks like a big head and shoulder pattern.
A weekly chart show the accumulation of the stock over a few years. At the beginning of 2006 it takes off and a ton of volume comes in. Since mid-2006 the stock has been doing a high-volume churn and not getting anywhere. During that time the MACD and RSI show negative divergence.
Lastly, let's talk fundamentals. The growth area of the company is one-touch coffee makers. The sales of machines have been great. But their business model is based on selling the machines for cheap and making it up on sales of the proprietary coffee pods.
I'm going to make a few assumptions. The first is that most people who buy the Krueig machines from GMCR probably already drink coffee and have a coffee machine. They probably bought a one-touch for convience. What is more discretionary than proprietary one-touch gourmet coffee pods?
When money is tight it's very easy to go to Wal-Mart, buy a really cheap drip coffee maker and some foldgers.
Motley Fool, although not my favorite site, has a write-up.
I'm sure the insiders think it's fairly valued.
In the last 6 monts
Net Shares Purchased (686,553)
out of the 5.07m held by insiders.
11.9% of the company in the past 6 months.
To get a better idea, check out the bottom of their FINVIZ page. I think the color adds a lot.
Net Institutional Purchases - Prior Qtr to Latest Qtr (3,809,140)
% Change in Institutional Shares Held (18.8%)
Lastly, "Green" mountain coffee is building the largest solar power array in Vermont. And they are giving $800,000 in grants to fight climate change.
Do they not realize that their business revolves around selling disposable, plastic, one-time coffee pods because their customer is so lazy that they can't scoop coffee into a filter?
Disclosure: Short through puts
Friday, February 27, 2009
I suck at trading
About 2 months ago I went through every chart in the Russell 3000. I made a watch list of stocks that looked like good trades.
Some of would have gone against me, some didn't move much, but a large amount would have made money. They are featured here.
However, chances are that I would have covered them way too early.
My technical analysis skills are longer term, my trading isn't. Because of this I know I need to take a more detached view. Set a stop when the trade goes on only adjust that.
I think the thing that has cost me the most money this past year is taking profits. So from now on I'm adjusting stops but not taking profits in the stock trades.
I was short TAP on a break of this channel. But I covered way too early.
Some of would have gone against me, some didn't move much, but a large amount would have made money. They are featured here.
However, chances are that I would have covered them way too early.
My technical analysis skills are longer term, my trading isn't. Because of this I know I need to take a more detached view. Set a stop when the trade goes on only adjust that.
I think the thing that has cost me the most money this past year is taking profits. So from now on I'm adjusting stops but not taking profits in the stock trades.
I was short TAP on a break of this channel. But I covered way too early.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Slow
One of the big difficulties in trading I've had is finding out what kind of trader I am. Right now I'm a shorter term currency trader (hours or days) and a longer term equities trader (weeks or months). Although I really enjoy trading currencies I don't really have the time while I'm in school. This is forcing me to become a longer term trader.
One of my strengths is longer term technical analysis, but I'm not very good at trading this analysis. I prefer the immediate feedback of short term trading. Waiting months for a position makes me overthink and usually exit early.
The problem for me with currency is that the amount of time I can devote to trading varies with the level of school work I have, but I'm not able to distance myself from the market. It seems like I'm either following the market (constantly checking quote, reading blogs/twitter, reading news) or I'm out of the market (not paying close attention). I think it's difficult to find a middle-ground.
Currently I have two long-term put positions. I have stop losses with alerts on both of them. I'll adjust the stops on them, but I won't exit them unless they get stopped out. And I'm only checking the daily close so that I'm not tempted to watch them all day.
Over the summer I'll be glued to my screens, but for right now I'm slowing my trading down.
One of my strengths is longer term technical analysis, but I'm not very good at trading this analysis. I prefer the immediate feedback of short term trading. Waiting months for a position makes me overthink and usually exit early.
The problem for me with currency is that the amount of time I can devote to trading varies with the level of school work I have, but I'm not able to distance myself from the market. It seems like I'm either following the market (constantly checking quote, reading blogs/twitter, reading news) or I'm out of the market (not paying close attention). I think it's difficult to find a middle-ground.
Currently I have two long-term put positions. I have stop losses with alerts on both of them. I'll adjust the stops on them, but I won't exit them unless they get stopped out. And I'm only checking the daily close so that I'm not tempted to watch them all day.
Over the summer I'll be glued to my screens, but for right now I'm slowing my trading down.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Yen Hangover
Yen was really overvalued. I got pieces of themove this week in usd/jpy. But after it get to the top of this channel I started shorting. Got stopped out on a few small positions, but finally got a nice move. Covered most of it, still short a small amount.
Nakagawa is definitely plastered. I think Bernanke, Greenspan, and Paulson getting drunk together would be hilarious.
Nakagawa is definitely plastered. I think Bernanke, Greenspan, and Paulson getting drunk together would be hilarious.
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Know your products
The double-short China fund (FXP) came out on 11/8/2007. The FXI topped out on 10/31/2007. Pretty good timing. I bought FXP when it first open around 75 and sold later in the day for a nice profit. Later in '07 on I was still bearish on China and bought some more to hold. My timing sucked and I closed the trade with a close.
In retrospect that's a good thing since it's at 36 now.
There's been an explosion of popularity in ETFs but it seems most people don't know what they are trading. Ever since my trade in FXP I've also done a lot more work on figuring out what is in an ETF and reading the prospectus.
This especially matters in more complicated ETFs like those that have leverage or are based off of futures. Great post at AlphaTrends on why people should be buying USL and not USO.
I was also doing some research on ETNs. One big difference between ETNs and ETFs is that ETNs have credit risk. So in effect they are like an ETF with a short put option on the provider. You won't get much upside for taking the credit risk, but you run the risk that they provider goes bankrupt. It reminds me of some of the "hell bonds" in "Traders, Guns, and Money".
In retrospect that's a good thing since it's at 36 now.
There's been an explosion of popularity in ETFs but it seems most people don't know what they are trading. Ever since my trade in FXP I've also done a lot more work on figuring out what is in an ETF and reading the prospectus.
This especially matters in more complicated ETFs like those that have leverage or are based off of futures. Great post at AlphaTrends on why people should be buying USL and not USO.
I was also doing some research on ETNs. One big difference between ETNs and ETFs is that ETNs have credit risk. So in effect they are like an ETF with a short put option on the provider. You won't get much upside for taking the credit risk, but you run the risk that they provider goes bankrupt. It reminds me of some of the "hell bonds" in "Traders, Guns, and Money".
Friday, February 13, 2009
USD/JPY
USD/JPY has been incredibly strong. Since Thursday it has rallied from 90 to 92. It's very overbought but has a lot of momentum. It's been channeling up and is testing its R2 pivot for today.
It's also right at a descending trendline from Nov. 24.
I've got a small short position from 91.94 with a stop at 92.10. Closed US markets on Monday should make it interesting.
It's also right at a descending trendline from Nov. 24.
I've got a small short position from 91.94 with a stop at 92.10. Closed US markets on Monday should make it interesting.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Current Currency Setup
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
eur/cad
Something is off about my stock trading lately. I'm not sure what it is. I'll keep the trades on that I have now, but I'm not doing any new trades.
Currency is going well though. Here is an amazing setup in EUR/CAD that I am currently short.
Currency is going well though. Here is an amazing setup in EUR/CAD that I am currently short.
Monday, February 2, 2009
Test the lows
Last week I was getting short GBP/JPY around 129. I got stopped out of the second short with a small profit. After that I got long GBP/USD for the last few hours and closed it just before the close. Overall a good week.
Among the blogs I read it seems like a consensus that we test the lows of the year. Although I agree with the outlook, I'm slightly cautious because it seems like a uniform opinion from every blog I read.
Down around 13 on the ES with 20 minutes until the open.
Right now I'm short DRI, but there are a lot of others I would like to be short.
GMCR looks like death on a weekly timeframe. Looks like a 2-year head and shoulders pattern. I might buy a small put. On the daily it looks like it's up against resistance around 40, which makes for a good stop.
I wish I would have stayed short AZO. I had too big of a short position on. I'm trying to trade smaller because it's easier to stay focused and disciplined.
I should my ADM put on the 14th, but know it looks like it's ready to fall again.
This past weekend I've been reading a lot of news and fundamentals. Normally I only trade off of charts but I'm going to try to incorporate more fundamentals into my thinking.
Among the blogs I read it seems like a consensus that we test the lows of the year. Although I agree with the outlook, I'm slightly cautious because it seems like a uniform opinion from every blog I read.
Down around 13 on the ES with 20 minutes until the open.
Right now I'm short DRI, but there are a lot of others I would like to be short.
GMCR looks like death on a weekly timeframe. Looks like a 2-year head and shoulders pattern. I might buy a small put. On the daily it looks like it's up against resistance around 40, which makes for a good stop.
I wish I would have stayed short AZO. I had too big of a short position on. I'm trying to trade smaller because it's easier to stay focused and disciplined.
I should my ADM put on the 14th, but know it looks like it's ready to fall again.
This past weekend I've been reading a lot of news and fundamentals. Normally I only trade off of charts but I'm going to try to incorporate more fundamentals into my thinking.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Trading education
Dr. Steenbarger did a great post about micromanging trades. This is an area of my trading that I've been working on improving for a long time and I've made a lot of progress. In the past I would find a good trade trade on a daily chart, but then constantly watch the position on a 1-min chart. Inevitably I would get scared out by something that happened on the 1-min, even though my trade was still fine on a daily timeframe. Because of this I think it's important to establish a price target and timeframe before entering the trade.
I remember being surprised when watching Jeff Bierman's thinkorswim chat on daytrading and how he was trading on an hourly chart and saying it was unnecessary to to watch every little price movement. Longer timeframes help to focus on the bigger picture and not get distracted by noise.
When thinkorswim got bought out I started considering potential alternatives just in case it changed dramatically. I realized what I needed in a broker was cheap commissions and a margin account for shorting. Thinking about my trading and what I actually needed helped me understand my own style better. I don't like short-term trading where I have to make quick decisions. I'm much more comfortable with a slower paced style.
Lastly, I found this show on BBC where people are selected to be trained as traders. The title "Million Dollar Traders" gives some insight to the mentality of the show. In the first episode, the new traders describe their motivations. Most of them are simply interested in getting rich. One retiree talks about his hopes of learning to trade so he can make money trading his retirement saving and "provide a more comfortable retirement". Another of the candidates, who works promoting fights, says "it's about validation" and that he wants to "prove" he can be a sucessful trader. To top it off, one of their coaches says "if you sleep really well every night, there's probably something wrong".
So BBC has a show about trading, meant for the public, that says trading is about validating yourself to other people, making lots of money, and taking on excessive risk to the point that you never sleep well. Great advice, BBC.
But on the other hand, people who are interested in trading and have the dedication can learn a lot. Retail trading tools have increased, commissions are cheap and the internet is full of amazing resources (like the ones mentioned above) for people who want to learn.
I remember being surprised when watching Jeff Bierman's thinkorswim chat on daytrading and how he was trading on an hourly chart and saying it was unnecessary to to watch every little price movement. Longer timeframes help to focus on the bigger picture and not get distracted by noise.
When thinkorswim got bought out I started considering potential alternatives just in case it changed dramatically. I realized what I needed in a broker was cheap commissions and a margin account for shorting. Thinking about my trading and what I actually needed helped me understand my own style better. I don't like short-term trading where I have to make quick decisions. I'm much more comfortable with a slower paced style.
Lastly, I found this show on BBC where people are selected to be trained as traders. The title "Million Dollar Traders" gives some insight to the mentality of the show. In the first episode, the new traders describe their motivations. Most of them are simply interested in getting rich. One retiree talks about his hopes of learning to trade so he can make money trading his retirement saving and "provide a more comfortable retirement". Another of the candidates, who works promoting fights, says "it's about validation" and that he wants to "prove" he can be a sucessful trader. To top it off, one of their coaches says "if you sleep really well every night, there's probably something wrong".
So BBC has a show about trading, meant for the public, that says trading is about validating yourself to other people, making lots of money, and taking on excessive risk to the point that you never sleep well. Great advice, BBC.
But on the other hand, people who are interested in trading and have the dedication can learn a lot. Retail trading tools have increased, commissions are cheap and the internet is full of amazing resources (like the ones mentioned above) for people who want to learn.
Thursday, January 29, 2009
gbp/jpy again
I've been following gbp/jpy a lot recently because there are some great setups. On a longer term timeframe this pair is in a strong downtrend. Recently it made a base and rallied up to its descending trendline. This also coincided with the 129 level which had been an area of previous support. Stochastics are heading down and MACD is rolling over.
Here are the trades so far. Yesterday I sold some and covered a little. After it broke through the downtrend line I covered more and my stop on the rest was just below my entry. I reshorted again a few hours ago.
After spending a long time looking for a good international clock for my computer I found this nice little utility from Microsoft that times in the toolbar. Pretty hand for currency traders.
http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx?familyid=07fb0bd8-f390-458d-a629-6f0258ac7cdf&displaylang=en
Here are the trades so far. Yesterday I sold some and covered a little. After it broke through the downtrend line I covered more and my stop on the rest was just below my entry. I reshorted again a few hours ago.
After spending a long time looking for a good international clock for my computer I found this nice little utility from Microsoft that times in the toolbar. Pretty hand for currency traders.
http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx?familyid=07fb0bd8-f390-458d-a629-6f0258ac7cdf&displaylang=en
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
gbp/jpy
Pretty clean setup in GBP/JPY. I'm short from 128.24
Took a little off and moved stop just below breakeven.
Took a little off and moved stop just below breakeven.
Jan 28
I've been busy with classes and haven't had a lot of time lately.
I got stopped out of CNP and AZO. I covered my SRCL short. I think it's a good long-term trade, but I'm not really a long term trader.
Still short DRI but with a stop above today's highs.
I've been following currencies a lot lately. I'm making a few small trades on a very small account for practice. All the trades made in term of risk/reward and % risk to the account. So I plan on doing this for a while to get some experience, and it allows me to easily scale up once I have good performance.
ADM looks like a good short, but they have earning on 2/2.
Up about 22% on TBT.
I got stopped out of CNP and AZO. I covered my SRCL short. I think it's a good long-term trade, but I'm not really a long term trader.
Still short DRI but with a stop above today's highs.
I've been following currencies a lot lately. I'm making a few small trades on a very small account for practice. All the trades made in term of risk/reward and % risk to the account. So I plan on doing this for a while to get some experience, and it allows me to easily scale up once I have good performance.
ADM looks like a good short, but they have earning on 2/2.
Up about 22% on TBT.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Thursday, January 22, 2009
DRI
I'm short DRI which is currently up around 11% on really aggressive buying. At first I was sort of angry and was thinking about covering the position. But I relaxed a little and thought it over. Instead of looking at a short-term chart, I looked at the bigger picture.
After looking at a long-term chart I've decided my trade idea is still intact, but that I'm taking a little pain. If it gets up to 29 or 30 I'll get out.
One thing I noticed is that the 200DMA seemed a little fast, and a 300DMA was often support or resistance. DRI broke a long term trendline and is in a downtrend below it's 200 and 300 MAs. The stock is in a bit of a downward channel and seems to be nearing the top of that range. The top of that range seems to coincide with the 200 and 300 MAs which are very close together.
One of the things I've learned from trading is focusing on strengths. Currently I consider my skills in technical analysis much better than those in trading. Because of this I'm focusing more on long-term trading that relies more on technical analysis than trading ability. I'm always going to working on improving my trading ability, but I'll do that with fake money.
I
After looking at a long-term chart I've decided my trade idea is still intact, but that I'm taking a little pain. If it gets up to 29 or 30 I'll get out.
One thing I noticed is that the 200DMA seemed a little fast, and a 300DMA was often support or resistance. DRI broke a long term trendline and is in a downtrend below it's 200 and 300 MAs. The stock is in a bit of a downward channel and seems to be nearing the top of that range. The top of that range seems to coincide with the 200 and 300 MAs which are very close together.
One of the things I've learned from trading is focusing on strengths. Currently I consider my skills in technical analysis much better than those in trading. Because of this I'm focusing more on long-term trading that relies more on technical analysis than trading ability. I'm always going to working on improving my trading ability, but I'll do that with fake money.
I
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Inauguration
My calls on USD/CAD and EUR/AUD dont' look that good right now. My analysis on currency isn't that great but I'm learning. Luckily I know this and trade small.
Here are the stocks I'm short. I bought the June put in AZO just after the open. I put up the daily charts for my reference. I could probably trade these off the 4-year, weekly charts.
And the ETF I wish I was short. A head&shoulders pattern, breaks the neckline. Then it finds support, does an amazing retest before falling away to all-time lows.
Brian Shannon did 2 great videos. In the first he outlines some trade ideas and in the second video he reviews and explains them. Really great information.
Trading Ideas
Trading Review
Here are the stocks I'm short. I bought the June put in AZO just after the open. I put up the daily charts for my reference. I could probably trade these off the 4-year, weekly charts.
And the ETF I wish I was short. A head&shoulders pattern, breaks the neckline. Then it finds support, does an amazing retest before falling away to all-time lows.
Brian Shannon did 2 great videos. In the first he outlines some trade ideas and in the second video he reviews and explains them. Really great information.Trading Ideas
Trading Review
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
