Oil

I'm surprised by how much I read in blogs about people buying oil and trying to pick the bottom.

On the way up I was dumb enough to think I could pick a top. Thankfully I've learned since then.

It's strange how people are compelled to trade oil even if there is no good trade to be had.

There are thousands of other things to trade, plenty of which have good setups.

The profit from buying the bottom isn't that great once you factor in the risk and the low probability of success.

I bet most people are dreaming about the huge move last year to 150. But chances are that oil isn't going to make a V-shaped bottom and explode higher toward 100 or 150.

DXO, the double-long oil fund, was a great contrary indicator. Came out less than a month before oil topped.

I think it's Brian Shannon who says that bottoms are a process not an event, which is a good thing to keep in mind.